The Durham-Orange Light Rail is Dead, So Now What? More Traffic and Congestion For One Thing
To the disappointment of transit supporters throughout our region, the Durham-Orange Light Rail transit project is now officially dead.
On March 27th, the GoTriangle Board of Trustees voted unanimously to discontinue the project. Shortly afterwards, on April 2nd, Orange County Commissioners voted to do the same, and Durham County Commissioners followed suit this past week on April 8th.
The $2.7 billion project, planned to connect Duke University and Chapel Hill hospitals along an 18-mile route, was anticipated to be a major component of the transit systems for both Durham and Chapel Hill. The project also would have supported Wake County’s’ own transit plan, which seeks, among other things, to implement a 37-mile commuter rail from Garner to Durham. As stated in the Wake plan, the commuter rail would have provided “strong connections to the planned light rail line linking Orange and Durham Counties.”
Nonetheless, in recent months it became clear that the Durham-Orange Light Rail faced an increasing number of insurmountable obstacles. The project ran up against tight state deadlines, funding cuts, mounting costs, and — most recently — opposition from Duke University. The latter proved to be the final nail in the proverbial coffin for the project.
Now, following this disappointing setback, friends of transit are likely wondering where things will go from here. On this point, Orange County Commissioner Sally Greene was recently quoted in the News & Observer saying, “We [now] may be headed for a future in which the major population centers of Orange County are cut off in a way from the rest of the Triangle.”
In the coming days and weeks ahead, staff from Durham and Orange Counties plan to meet with GoTriangle and the Durham-Chapel Hill-Carrboro regional planning group to go back to the drawing board and begin drafting a new transit plan. After decades of planning and close to $130 million already spent, there’s a push to try to salvage much of the work already done establishing the light-rail corridor. But no new ideas will be adopted anytime soon. According to Ellen Reckhow, a member of the GoTriangle Board of Trustees, it will take anywhere between a year and 18 months to update the transit plan.
A Reminder of Why We Need Transit
In light of the collapse of the Durham-Orange Light Rail — and as work gets underway to draft a new transit plan for the two counties — we thought now would be a good time to take a step back and remind residents, elected officials, policymakers, transit advocates, and other stakeholders of why it’s important to support public transit at this point in our region’s growth.
We anticipate this being the first in a series of posts on this important issue, and in this first post we want to focus on one aspect of our existing, car-dependent transportation model that most residents in the region will probably agree has become a source of frustration in recent years.
We’re talking, of course, about traffic.
How Long Does it Take You to Get to Work?
The most obvious reason to support public transit projects like the Durham-Orange Light Rail and the Wake County Commuter Rail is that, quite simply, our region is rapidly growing, and sooner rather than later our roads and highways will no longer be able to accommodate all the traffic generated from private vehicle use.
But where does our traffic problem currently stand? And how has it changed over time in response to all the growth our region has undergone in recent years?
To find out, we gathered data on the time it takes residents to commute to and from work each day in each of the three core counties that comprise the Triangle — Durham County, Orange County, and Wake County. All the data came from from the U.S. Census Bureau’s annual American Community Survey (ACS), and we focused specifically on the time frame from 2005 to 2017, the most recent year for which ACS data are available.
With Growth Comes More Cars, Traffic, and Longer Commute Times
In each of the the Triangle’s three core counties, the vast majority of residents commute to work each day using a private vehicle — 89% in Durham County, 87% in Wake County, and 75% in Orange County. Moreover, as our region has grown over the past decade, there’s been an increase across all three counties in the number of people using a privately owned vehicle to get to work.
The table below shows, for Durham, Orange, and Wake Counties between 2005 and 2017, the number of workers aged 16 and over who used a private automobile to commute to and from work each day. These numbers include not only workers who drove alone but also workers who drove with others as part of a carpool.
Number of Workers 16 & Older Commuting to Work in a Car, Truck, or Van
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durham County | 104,891 | 109,863 | 109,753 | 115,238 | 113,998 | 110,160 | 113,293 | 116,619 | 122,676 | 123,230 | 131,798 | 136,261 | 139,989 |
| Orange County | 48,120 | 46,538 | 49,132 | 52,292 | 49,548 | 47,558 | 51,478 | 50,045 | 52,377 | 51,818 | 54,935 | 51,663 | 55,306 |
| Wake County | 347,866 | 365,755 | 382,076 | 407,948 | 396,637 | 397,119 | 404,988 | 424,416 | 441,319 | 456,664 | 455,184 | 481,570 | 489,759 |
From 2005 to 2017, Wake County saw the largest percent increase in car traffic during daily commutes to work, from about 348,000 car-dependent commuters in 2005 to roughly 490,000 in 2017 — a 41% increase. Meanwhile, Durham and Orange Counties saw increases of 33% and 15%, respectively.
And as more cars have been filling up our streets and highways, our daily commutes to and from work appear to be getting longer.
Below we take a look at how, specifically, daily commutes to work have changed over time in each county, beginning with the focal point of the recent light-rail drama — Durham County.
Durham County — Large And Growing
Durham County is the sixth most populous county in North Carolina. It’s also rapidly growing. In 2005, the the total population of Durham County was 232,573. By 2017, its population had risen to 311,640, representing an increase of 34% over the last thirteen years.
The graphic below depicts, for each year between 2005 and 2017, the percentage of residents in Durham County who (1) used a private vehicle such as a car, truck, or van to get to work and (2) had a daily commute time of 30 minutes or more.
As you can see, the percentage of residents with a commute time of half-hour or more has, on average, increased gradually over the last decade — and especially so during the last five to seven years. In 2005, only about 22% of car-driving residents in Durham County had a daily commute time of 30 minutes or longer. In 2017, on the other hand, this was true of 28% of residents.
We can also estimate what commute times in Durham County might like in the future, assuming the county’s population continues to grow at the same pace and nothing much changes about how residents choose to travel to and from work.
Assuming a similar rate of increased traffic and commute times over the next couple decades, we can project that, by the year 2040, the percentage of Durham County residents who spend 30 minutes or longer driving a car to work everyday could be anywhere between 33-48%.
Orange County — Smaller But Growing At the Same Rate
Next, let’s take a look at Orange County, home to Hillsborough and Chapel Hill and the other major connection point for the ill-fated Durham-Orange Light Rail.
While less populous than Durham County, Orange County has grown at a comparable rate over the past decade. In 2005, Orange County’s population was 108,104. However, in 2017 its population was up to 144,946, representing a similar 34% increase over thirteen years.
The graphic below depicts, for each year between 2005 and 2017, the percentage of residents in Orange County who (1) used a private vehicle such as a car, truck, or van to get to work and (2) had a daily commute time of 30 minutes or more.
As in Durham County, there are more Orange County residents with a commute time of 30 minutes or longer today than a decade ago. In 2005, only about 28% of car-driving residents in Orange County had a daily commute of a half-hour or more. In 2017, on the other hand, this was true of 36% of residents.
As you can see in the graphic above, long daily commutes in Orange County reached an all-time high for the area in 2017. Since a low of 24% in 2009, the percentage of Orange County residents with a half-hour commute or longer has nearly doubled, having increased by a factor of roughly 1.5.
And just as we did above, we can project what commute times in Orange County might look like over the next couple decades, assuming a rate of increased traffic and congestion similar to what we’ve seen in the county over the past thirteen years. Doing so, we see that, by the year 2040, about 42% of Orange County residents could have a daily commute time of 30 minutes or longer.
Wake County — Large and Quickly Getting Larger
Finally, let’s consider Wake County, the largest of the three counties that comprise the Triangle and the second-most populous county in all of North Carolina.
Of the three counties in our region, Wake County is the fastest growing. In 2005, Wake County’s population was 730,138. But by 2017, that number had swelled to 1,072,203, representing an impressive 47% increase over thirteen years.
The graphic below depicts, for each year between 2005 and 2017, the percentage of residents in Wake County who (1) used a private vehicle such as a car, truck, or van to get to work and (2) had a daily commute time of 30 minutes or more.
Not surprisingly — given what we’ve already seen above in Durham and Orange Counties — the percentage of Wake County residents with a commute time of 30 minutes or more has increased over the past decade. In 2005, only about 32% of car-driving residents in Wake County had a daily commute time of 30 minutes or more. By 2017, this was true of 37% of residents.
Projecting out again over the next couple decades, we can estimate that, by the year 2040, anywhere from 41% to a whopping 58% of Wake County residents could experience daily commutes of a half hour or longer.
Where Do We Go From Here?
As we’ve shown, more Triangle residents have to endure long daily commutes to work today than a decade ago. Across the three largest counties that comprise the Triangle — Durham County, Orange County, and Wake County — a full 35% of daily commuters (~ 241,000 people) spend half and hour or longer each day driving a personal car to work. And in the absence of improved public transit, that number is likely only to rise.
Of course, part of the reason for so many long commutes could be that there are more people traveling long distances to work today than back in 2005. But even if that’s true, it doesn’t diminish our area’s need for greater transit. After all, public transit doesn’t need to reduce travel times in order to be beneficial. Indeed, a 2015 study published in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health found that having access to — and presumably using — public transit seems to be good for our mental health.
In all likelihood though, increased traffic and congestion from population growth is part of the reason why our commutes in the Triangle the have gotten longer in recent years. So, unless we’re okay with ever increasing commute times and frustration with traffic, we need to encourage more residents to shift away from using privately owned automobiles as the primary — and in some instances only — way of getting around.
Obviously, it will be no easy feat to shift away from from our existing car-dependent system. However, real progress can be made if we commit to and make serious investments in a multi-modal transportation system that prioritizes so-called “alternative modes of travel” — things like buses, commuter rail, light rail, bicycles, e-scooters, and pedestrian travel — at least as much as cars.
Residents can also help drive progress on this issue by advocating for more public transit and by supporting organizations and events that promote alternative ways of getting around.
Indeed, although the collapse of the Durham-Orange Light Rail project makes it clear that the Triangle still has a long way to go before true multi-modal transportation is a reality in our region, we shouldn’t forget that there are already many ways to get around our area that don’t involve the use of a car and which won’t contribute to our worsening traffic problem.
In fact, in recognition of National Bike Month and National Walking Month, we’ll be highlighting a few of those “alternative” transportation options here and on social media throughout the entire month of May.
Then on June 8th, WakeUP Wake County will be a proud partner in the 2019 Cross Triangle Greenway Ride, which will be a fun, recreational bicycle ride for all ages and abilities along 40 miles of protected greenway trails, beginning in Durham, proceeding through Cary, and ending at the newly opened Transfer Co. Food Hall in Downtown Raleigh (a shorter 25-mile route will also be available). The event is being organized by the East Coast Greenway Alliance, in partnership with the City of Durham, the Town of Cary, the City of Raleigh, GoTriangle, and WakeUP Wake County.
We hope this will be a fun and helpful way to highlight all the ways to get around the Triangle without relying on a car, so be sure to save the date and stay tuned for more updates to come.
And if you’re among the 35% of people in our region who will be spending more than a half hour driving to work tomorrow, don’t forget to download a good podcast or audio book before heading out the door for that long commute. If you need recommendations, here are some places to start:
- Inbound Raleigh is a local podcast about transportation and transit in Raleigh.
- Greater Greater Washington, a non-profit organization that advocates for sustainable growth in the Washington DC region, offers this list of recommendations on books.
Brian Kurilla, Ph.D. is the Policy Analyst for WakeUP Wake County and an Experimental Psychologist and Data Scientist.