Think Our Housing Crisis is Bad Now? Just Wait Until the Great Climate Migration.
WakeUp Wake County believes everyone deserves to live in a home they can afford and in a neighborhood in which they can flourish. Unfortunately, however, this vision is out of reach for too many in our community today.
As of January 2020, Wake County has a deficit of nearly 61,000 affordable homes. Meanwhile, in Raleigh, which accounts for about 40 percent of the total population of Wake County, roughly a third of households are burdened by housing costs, meaning they spend 30 percent or more of their income each month on mortgage or rent and utilities.1
WakeUP endorsed Raleigh’s $80 million Affordable Housing Bond, which voters recently approved overwhelmingly, because we believe the programs included in the bond package constitute the start of a good comprehensive plan for dealing with the city’s housing problems. But, as we’ve written previously, the bond is just that — a start. In the months and years ahead, local leaders and housing advocates will need to work together to develop solutions to the many housing challenges that will remain even after voters approve the bond.
Climate change brought on by human activity is one of those lingering challenges. Although it has so far received little attention in local housing conversations, climate change is going to be a persistent threat to housing affordability in Wake County because, over the next few decades, climate-related disasters could lead to accelerated population growth in inland communities such as Raleigh.
It’s all part of what climate experts refer to as the “Great Climate Migration.”
Climate Migration Will Reshape American Cities
Climate migration refers to the movement of people from their towns, cities, and counties of residence after sudden or long-term changes in the environment; and within the next 50-80 years, as climate change devastates large swaths of the country through flooding and wildfires, the United States is likely to experience the largest migration of people in its 244-year history.
Research by Matthew Hauer, a sociologist at Florida State University, predicts that by the year 2100 rising sea levels will force about 13 million Americans to relocate from high-risk coastal communities. To escape the dangers of coastal flooding and hurricanes, many of these climate refugees, according to Hauer, will flee to growing, inland cities—places like Austin, Orlando, Atlanta, and Raleigh. This predicted pattern of urbanization is consistent with other reports, such as one by the United Nations, predicting that about 90 percent of the U.S. population will live in cities by the year 2050 (for comparison, only about 65 percent of Americans lived in cities in 1950).
For cities already struggling with issues like housing affordability and wealth inequality, the influx of climate refugees will further stress local economies, housing supplies, and critical infrastructure. A recent story in the New York Times Magazine, which highlighted Hauer’s research, described the future threat to America’s cities as follows:
By 2100, Hauer estimates, Atlanta, Orlando, Houston and Austin could each receive more than a quarter million new residents as a result of sea-level displacement alone, meaning it may be those cities — not the places that empty out — that wind up bearing the brunt of America’s reshuffling. The World Bank warns that fast-moving climate urbanization leads to rising unemployment, competition for services and deepening poverty. So what will happen to Atlanta — a metro area of 5.8 million people that may lose its water supply to drought and that our data also shows will face an increase in heat-driven wildfires? Hauer estimates that hundreds of thousands of climate refugees will move into the city by 2100, swelling its population and stressing its infrastructure. Atlanta — where poor transportation and water systems contributed to the state’s C+ infrastructure grade last year — already suffers greater income inequality than any other large American city, making it a virtual tinderbox for social conflict. One in 10 households earns less than $10,000 a year, and rings of extreme poverty are growing on its outskirts even as the city center grows wealthier.
*Emphasis added
The situation facing North Carolina isn’t much better than that depicted above. Hauer estimates that between now and the year 2100 North Carolina will rank as having the third-highest net-change in population due to rising sea levels, just behind Georgia. The Raleigh area specifically is anticipated to see an influx of up to 111,000 climate refugees, which represents roughly a quarter of the city’s current population.
Of course, climate refugees will represent just a fraction of those who will move to Wake County in the coming decades, and according to the Office of State Budget and Management, a total of around 300,000 people will migrate to Wake County by as early as 2039.
Climate Migration has Likely Already Begun
Importantly, climate migration is neither hypothetical nor a far-flung, remote possibility; climate migration has already begun, and in North Carolina we don’t need to look far to see possible evidence.
While North Carolina’s population has grown by about 9 percent over the last decade (making it the fourth fastest growing state in the country in 2018), this growth has occurred almost exclusively in major urban areas, such as Raleigh, Durham, and Charlotte. Meanwhile, many rural communities in the east, which have been battered by hurricanes and flooding in recent years, are heading in the opposite direction, with the steepest population declines in the state occurring in Bertie, Northampton, and Washington counties, according to a report by the UNC Carolina Population Center.
Of course, this is not definitive evidence of climate migration, as there are many reasons besides climate change that communities decline, including a lack of economic opportunity, consolidation of agriculture, loss of manufacturing jobs, and aging populations. Nonetheless, that doesn’t negate the impact of climate-related disasters on population loss. In places that are just barely hanging on, a major hurricane could easily prove to be the last straw for many residents, especially those with the means to pick up and go elsewhere.
Looking Ahead — Planning and Adaptation are Critical
Wake County has learned firsthand in recent years the difficulty of addressing the challenges accompanying rapid growth. Yet, if climate projections hold true, the last 10 years or so will, in many ways, be just a small taste of what’s to come. Due to the reshaping of American cities by climate change, Wake County’s present housing crisis might well represent just the beginning of our area’s challenges around growth.
Globally, the average sea level has risen by about 7-8 inches over the past century, and the rate of increase is accelerating. With almost half the total increase having occurred in just the last few decades, the average global sea level is currently rising at a rate of about one-eighth of an inch per year.
Sea levels are also rising rapidly along North Carolina’s coast. According to the North Carolina Climate Science Report (NCCSR), a comprehensive summary of historic and projected climate trends throughout North Carolina, sea level is rising about twice as fast along the northeastern coast of North Carolina as along the southeastern coast. By 2100, the sea level is projected to rise by up to 3.9 feet at Duck, NC and up to 3.3 feet at Wilmington, NC. Within the next 80 years, high tide flooding will become a daily occurrence in these areas (NCICS scientists presented the draft findings of the NCCSR to Governor Cooper’s Climate Change Interagency Council back in January. Click here to view that presentation).
Due to long-term and delayed melting of polar ice caps, it’s virtually guaranteed that sea levels along the North Carolina coast will continue rising for centuries, even if we stopped burning all fossil fuels tomorrow.
Given these sobering projections, Wake County communities should take stock of the lessons they’re learning today about adapting to growth and immediately begin scaling up plans for the future, when it will be increasingly necessary to accommodate climate refugees. To safeguard against displacing current residents and forcing families into far-flung, remote developments, communities will need more planning around transit, more policies and resources for creating diverse housing types in walkable communities, more funding for rehabilitation of existing affordable homes, and more resources for residents struggling with rent and facing eviction.
Wake communities also need to recognize the two-way connections that exist between climate change and land use — climate change impacts land use, as we’ve discussed here, and, at the same time, land use impacts climate change. As such, our local communities need fewer short-sighted plans that enable sprawl and keep residents dependent on climate-polluting automobiles.
There’s no exaggerating the need for immediate planning and action around climate change and climate-related impacts on growth. Climate change represents an enormous threat to humanity, not just because of the inherent dangers of rising global temperatures but also because, as a threat multiplier, climate change threatens to exacerbate existing societal challenges, including urban growth, crowding, housing affordability, and resident displacement.
If we, as a community, fail to devise an adequate plan for not only reducing greenhouse gas emissions but also adapting to future climate-related threats, such as climate migration, we’ll end up looking back at this time in our area’s history almost fondly — as a time when only 61,000 households throughout the county lacked affordable housing, when only a third of households were drowning in housing costs, when the poverty rate for African Americans in Wake County was only 16 percent, when aging residents were being displaced only in areas near downtown Raleigh, and when the top 5 percent of earners in the county controlled only one fifth of the area’s total income.1,2
And honestly, who wants to look back on 2020 fondly?
More to Come…
In the coming year, WakeUP plans to do much more work communicating about the realities of climate change and advocating for workable polices to reduce harmful emissions. In early 2021, we’ll be hosting a virtual Climate Change summit to teach residents and community leaders about the important role each of us plays when it comes to protecting our planet and our communities from the threat of rising global temperatures.
The specific date for this event will be announced soon, so stay tuned for more!
References:
1City of Raleigh 2021-2025 Consolidated Plan
2U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates