Why the COVID-19 Pandemic should have Us All Thinking about Climate Change

After more than three weeks of school closures, shuttered businesses, and social distancing, the novel coronavirus continues to sweep through the U.S. and North Carolina.

As of Tuesday, April 7, there are over 366,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States and more than 3,000 reported cases here in North Carolina. COVID-19 is the respiratory disease caused by the novel coronavirus.

To stem the spread of the virus, Governor Roy Cooper signed Executive Orders late last month extending the closing of all schools until May 15 and forcing the closure of businesses, including dine-in restaurants, movie theaters, and hair salons.

More recently, a number of North Carolina communities, including Wake County, Mecklenburg County, and the City of Durham, issued official shelter-in-place orders, mandating that residents stay home unless providing defined essential services. Governor Cooper followed suit shortly after with a similar statewide order.

For updates on what the state, county, and local municipalities are doing to combat COVID-19, see our earlier post here.

Although the novel coronavirus outbreak is still mostly in the early phases here in the U.S. — and there’s reason to believe the present situation will continue for some time — it’s not too early to think about how we can prevent an epidemic like this from occurring again in the future.

Obviously, there’s no single culprit responsible for a pandemic like COVID-19. But one thing that’s not helping is the other global crisis that, although slower moving, is similarly urgent and dangerous — climate change.

Although there’s no evidence that warming temperatures played a direct role in facilitating the spread of COVID-19, actions to address warming temperatures will likely reduce our vulnerability to future viral outbreaks.

Turning the Tide on Climate Change will Reduce Vulnerability to Future Disease

The link between climate change and pandemics is not so clear-cut. So it’s difficult to pinpoint the precise role that rising temperatures play in facilitating the spread of a single virus.

Nonetheless, Katharine Hayhoe, a climate scientist at Texas Tech and an author of the federal government’s National Climate Assessment, recently took to Twitter to speak directly about the connection between climate change and COVID-19.

A common question I’m getting these days is, what does #COVID19 or #coronavirus have to do with climate change? The short answer is, very little; but the long answer is, everything is related. This thread explains …
— Prof. Katharine Hayhoe (@KHayhoe) March 16, 2020

As Dr. Hayhoe makes clear, climate change is a “threat multiplier,” which means it makes many of society’s existing problems worse.

So, while there’s no evidence that warming temperatures directly caused the COVID-19 pandemic, our warming climate is undeniably making matters worse by increasing risk and vulnerability among communities.

How exactly? Consider what we already know about how climate change affects vulnerability to known viruses and diseases.

Each year, the seasonal flu kills up to 650,000 people around the world annually. But as our winters become milder, flu seasons are starting to last longer and become more severe. That’s because milder winters fuel complacency and make people less inclined to get vaccinated in the future. Moreover, longer flu seasons lead to prolonged exposure to influenza and create more opportunity for viruses to mutate into more dangerous strains. Some research even suggests that a warmer climate weakens our immune systems.

Then there’s the matter of air pollution.

Fossil fuels not only release planet-warming greenhouse gases when they’re burned. They also produce significant air pollution, a major killer and risk factor for disease. Air pollution kills roughly 7-8 million people worldwide each year and increases susceptibility to serious respiratory illnesses, such as SARS and, of course, now COVID-19.

The COVID-19 Outbreak Proves there is Another, Less Carbon-Intensive Way to Live

Although COVID-19 is rightfully dominating the headlines right now, climate change brought on by human activity is the single greatest threat we face. This is true globally, nationally, and locally right here in Wake County. Not only does a warming climate threaten delicate ecosystems and heighten the risk of extreme weather events, it also increases vulnerability to disease, as described above.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which includes more than 1,300 scientists from the United States and other countries, projects that global temperatures will rise 2.5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit over the next century. To avoid the worst effects of climate change, the IPCC warns we need to cut carbon emissions by 45% over the next decade.

The time to act on this threat is now, especially as the City of Raleigh and other Wake municipalities ramp up efforts to address greenhouse gas emissions on a local scale. By some estimates, total emissions are up 91% in the Raleigh metro area since 1990, even as per-person emissions in the region are down 22% over the same time period.

Last year, the Raleigh City Council adopted a community-wide goal of an 80% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. To achieve that goal, the City is now preparing a Community-wide Climate Action Plan (CCAP) that involves evaluating goals, actions, and strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, with anticipated completion of the plan document by the Spring of 2020.

But plans for addressing climate change will be ineffective without significant support from communities. We need to fight climate change the same way we’re fighting COVID-19 — through behavioral and lifestyle changes and smart, strategic policies. Because transportation is the largest source of planet-warming gases in the United States today, that means, first and foremost, we need to drive less.

According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, quarantines and other coronavirus-related restrictions will likely reduce China’s greenhouse gas emissions this year by a full 25 percent.

If a sizable number of Americans find, amid the present outbreak, that telecommuting is, in fact, a viable long-term work option, then just that — a sizable number of Americans choosing to work from home one or two days a week — could go a long way toward curbing emissions and mitigating climate change.

By our estimate, we could eliminate about 11,220 metric tons of CO₂ emissions each year if everyone in Wake County who presently drives to work alone chose to replace just one mile of driving each week with one mile per week of walking or riding a bicycle.¹ That’s the equivalent savings of nearly 490,000 trash bags of waste recycled each year instead of sent to a landfill.

Of course, emissions will likely rebound in the months and years ahead, as countries try to boost economic recoveries by loosening environmental regulations. So, in addition to lifestyle changes, we also need changes in policy related to transportation and housing. After all, good policies around transportation and housing constitute the core of good health policy (see here and here for additional thoughts on policy in the wake of COVID-19).

Now is not the time to lose sight of our communities’ long-term sustainability goals. More than ever, we need to support transit and bikeable and walkable communities, if not for the health of our planet then for the health of our communities and residents.

As more Americans park their cars and stay home, the COVID-19 outbreak proves there are other, less carbon-intensive ways to live. It also proves that, despite political and geographic divisions, people are willing to set aside personal interests, think of others, and work together to defeat a mutual threat.

Over the next ten years, we will need to muster the same good will and altruistic spirit to turn the tide on climate change.

Notes:
¹Estimates derived from MOVES2014b, the latest version of the Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator model.

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